Arbeitspapier

Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes

Causal effects of a policy change on the hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identified from a comparison of spells before and after the policy change when there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects and no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that overcomes this by considering spells that include the moment of the policy change and by exploiting variation in the moment at which different cohorts are exposed to the policy change. We prove identi cation of average treatment effects on hazard rates without model structure. We estimate these effects by kernel hazard regression. We use the introduction of the NDYP program for young unemployed individuals in the UK to estimate average program participation effects on the exit rate to work as well as anticipation effects.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: IFS Working Papers ; No. W18/10

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
Thema
policy evaluation
hazard rate
identification
causality
regression discontinuity
selectivity
kernel hazard estimation
local linear regression
average treatment effect
job search assistance
youth unemployment

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
van den Berg, Gerard J.
Bozio, Antoine
Costa Dias, Monica
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)
(wo)
London
(wann)
2018

DOI
doi:10.1920/wp.ifs.2018.W1810
Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • van den Berg, Gerard J.
  • Bozio, Antoine
  • Costa Dias, Monica
  • Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)

Entstanden

  • 2018

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