Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes

Arbeitspapier

Causal effects of a policy change on the hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identified from a comparison of spells before and after the policy change when there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects and no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that overcomes this by considering spells that include the moment of the policy change and by exploiting variation in the moment at which different cohorts are exposed to the policy change. We prove identi cation of average treatment effects on hazard rates without model structure. We estimate these effects by kernel hazard regression. We use the introduction of the NDYP program for young unemployed individuals in the UK to estimate average program participation effects on the exit rate to work as well as anticipation effects.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: IFS Working Papers ; No. W18/10

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search ; Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
• Subject: policy evaluation ; hazard rate ; identification ; causality ; regression discontinuity ; selectivity ; kernel hazard estimation ; local linear regression ; average treatment effect ; job search assistance ; youth unemployment

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): van den Berg, Gerard J. ; Bozio, Antoine ; Costa Dias, Monica
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)
• (where): London
• (when): 2018

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.1920/wp.ifs.2018.W1810
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/200299
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET