Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Temporal and Portfolio Aggregation

Arbeitspapier

We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a horizon of ten trading days for a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments. The VaR forecasts are constructed based on daily, weekly or biweekly returns of all constituent assets separately, gathered into portfolios based on asset class, or into a single portfolio. We compare the impact of aggregation to that of choosing a model for the conditional volatilities and correlations, the distribution for the innovations and the method of forecast construction. We find that the degree of temporal aggregation is most important. Daily returns form the best basis for VaR forecasts. Modelling the portfolio at the asset or asset class level works better than complete portfolio aggregation, but differences are smaller. The differences from the model, distribution and forecast choices are also smaller compared to temporal aggregation.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 15-140/III

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Financial Forecasting and Simulation
• Thema: forecast evaluation ; aggregation ; Value-at-Risk ; model comparison

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Kole, Erik ; Markwat, Thijs ; Opschoor, Anne ; van Dijk, Dick
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Tinbergen Institute
• (wo): Amsterdam and Rotterdam
• (wann): 2015

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/130482
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ