Banking crises and recessions: What can leading indicators tell us?

Arbeitspapier

It is widely suggested that there is some relationship between banking crises and recessions. We assess whether there is evidence for interdependency between recessions and banking crises using both non-parametric tests and unconditional bivariate probit models and find strong evidence for interdependence. We then consider whether leading indicators can help predict banking crises and recessions and if these variables can explain the previously observed interdependence. Inclusion of exogenous variables means that the observed interdependence between banking crises and recessions disappears - indicating that the observed interdependence is a result of easily observable common causes rather than unobserved links.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: External MPC Unit Discussion Paper ; No. 33

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
• Thema: Crises ; recessions ; interdependency ; bivariate probit analysis ; Wirtschaftslage ; Bankenkrise ; Konjunktur ; Probit-Modell

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Corder, Matthew ; Weale, Martin
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Bank of England, External Monetary Policy Committee Unit
• (wo): London
• (wann): 2011

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/84704
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ