Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data

Arbeitspapier

We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as vulnerable or not. Predictive performance is assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), which takes account of false positive as well as true positive rates. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and high mobility in and out of poverty.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Discussion Papers ; No. 118

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Measurement and Analysis of Poverty ; Development Planning and Policy: Other
• Subject: vulnerability ; poverty ; ROC ; German panel data

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Landau, Katja ; Klasen, Stephan ; Zucchini, Walter
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Courant Research Centre - Poverty, Equity and Growth (CRC-PEG)
• (where): Göttingen
• (when): 2012

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/90502
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET