Arbeitspapier
Measuring vulnerability to poverty using long-term panel data
We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as vulnerable or not. Predictive performance is assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), which takes account of false positive as well as true positive rates. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and high mobility in and out of poverty.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research ; No. 481
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
Development Planning and Policy: Other
- Thema
-
vulnerability
poverty
ROC
German panel data
Armut
Risiko
Messung
Prognoseverfahren
Soziale Mobilität
Schätzung
Deutschland
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Landau, Katja
Klasen, Stephan
Zucchini, Walter
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
- (wo)
-
Berlin
- (wann)
-
2012
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
- 10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft.
Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Landau, Katja
- Klasen, Stephan
- Zucchini, Walter
- Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
Entstanden
- 2012
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