Arbeitspapier
(Almost) recursive identification of monetary policy shocks with economic parameter restrictions
Recursively identified vector autoregressive (VAR) models often lead to a counterintuitive response of prices (and output) shortly after a monetary policy shock. To overcome this problem, we propose to estimate the VAR parameters under the restriction that economic theory is not violated, while the shocks are still recursively identified. We solve this optimization problem under non-linear constraints using an augmented Lagrange solution approach, which adjusts the VAR coefficients to meet the theoretical requirements. In a generalization, we allow for a (minimal) rotation of the Cholesky matrix in addition to the parameter restrictions. Based on a Monte Carlo study and an empirical application, we show that particularly the "almost recursively identified approach with parameter restrictions" leads to a solution that avoids an estimation bias, generates theory-consistent impulse responses, and is as close as possible to the recursive scheme.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Research Papers in Economics ; No. 1/23
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
- Thema
-
Monetary Policy Transmission
Non-Linear Optimization
Price Puzzle
Recursive Identification
Rotation
Sign Restrictions
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Burgard, Jan Pablo
Neuenkirch, Matthias
Umlandt, Dennis
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Universität Trier, Fachbereich IV - Volkswirtschaftslehre
- (wo)
-
Trier
- (wann)
-
2023
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Burgard, Jan Pablo
- Neuenkirch, Matthias
- Umlandt, Dennis
- Universität Trier, Fachbereich IV - Volkswirtschaftslehre
Entstanden
- 2023
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