The Financial Accelerator in the Euro Area: New Evidence Using a Mixture VAR Model

Arbeitspapier

We estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 2003Q1–2019Q4 with a special emphasis on credit conditions. With the help of this model, monetary policy transmission can be described as mixture of two states (e.g., a normal state and a crisis state), using an underlying logit model determining the relative weight of these states over time. We show that shocks to the credit spread and shocks to credit standards directly lead to a reduction of real GDP growth, whereas shocks to the quantity of credit are less important in explaining growth fluctuations. Credit standards and the credit spread are also the key determinants of the underlying state of the economy in the logit submodel. Together with a more pronounced transmission of monetary policy shocks in the crisis state, this provides further evidence for a financial accelerator in the euro area. Finally, the detrimental effect of credit conditions is also reflected in the labor market.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 8740

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy ; Monetary Policy ; Central Banks and Their Policies ; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
• Subject: credit growth ; credit spread ; credit standards ; euro area ; financial accelerator ; mixture VAR ; monetary policy transmission

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Bennani, Hamza ; Neuenkirch, Matthias
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2020

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229558
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET