Arbeitspapier
State-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty
We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (ΕPU-S), one that captures national and international sources (EPU-N), and a composite index that captures both. EPU-S rises around gubernatorial elections and own-state episodes like the California electricity crisis of 2000-01 and the Kansas tax experiment of 2012. EPU-N rises around presidential elections and in response to 9-11, Gulf Wars I and II, the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis, the 2012 fiscal cliff episode, and federal government shutdowns. Close elections elevate policy uncertainty much more than the average election. The COVID-19 pandemic drove huge increases in policy uncertainty and unemployment, more so in states with stricter government-mandated lockdowns. VAR models fit to pre-COVID data imply that upward shocks to own-state EPU foreshadow weaker economic activity in the state.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 15156
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
General Outlook and Conditions
General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation
State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations: General
Regional Government Analysis: General
- Subject
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policy uncertainty
elections and uncertainty
COVID-19
state-level economic performance
unemployment
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Baker, Scott R.
Davis, Steven J.
Levy, Jeffrey A.
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
- (where)
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Bonn
- (when)
-
2022
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Baker, Scott R.
- Davis, Steven J.
- Levy, Jeffrey A.
- Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
Time of origin
- 2022
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