Arbeitspapier
State-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty
We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (ΕPU-S), one that captures national and international sources (EPU-N), and a composite index that captures both. EPU-S rises around gubernatorial elections and own-state episodes like the California electricity crisis of 2000-01 and the Kansas tax experiment of 2012. EPU-N rises around presidential elections and in response to 9-11, Gulf Wars I and II, the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis, the 2012 fiscal cliff episode, and federal government shutdowns. Close elections elevate policy uncertainty much more than the average election. The COVID-19 pandemic drove huge increases in policy uncertainty and unemployment, more so in states with stricter government-mandated lockdowns. VAR models fit to pre-COVID data imply that upward shocks to own-state EPU foreshadow weaker economic activity in the state.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 15156
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General
General Outlook and Conditions
General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation
State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations: General
Regional Government Analysis: General
- Thema
-
policy uncertainty
elections and uncertainty
COVID-19
state-level economic performance
unemployment
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Baker, Scott R.
Davis, Steven J.
Levy, Jeffrey A.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
- (wo)
-
Bonn
- (wann)
-
2022
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Baker, Scott R.
- Davis, Steven J.
- Levy, Jeffrey A.
- Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
Entstanden
- 2022
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