Arbeitspapier
Oil price forecasting under asymmetric loss
Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price of oil tended to be larger than the loss they incurred when their forecast fell short of the price of oil. Accounting for the asymmetry of the loss function does not necessarily make forecasts look rational.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Discussion Paper ; No. 314
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Foreign Exchange
Expectations; Speculations
- Thema
-
oil price
forecasting
loss function
rationality of forecasts
Ölpreis
Prognoseverfahren
Rationale Erwartung
Verlust
Sachverständige
EU-Staaten
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Pierdzioch, Christian
Rülke, Jan-Christoph
Stadtmann, Georg
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt (Oder)
- (wann)
-
2012
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Pierdzioch, Christian
- Rülke, Jan-Christoph
- Stadtmann, Georg
- European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics
Entstanden
- 2012
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