Arbeitspapier

Identification and Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Manipulated Running Variable

A key assumption in regression discontinuity analysis is that units cannot manipulate the value of their running variable in a way that guarantees or avoids assignment to the treatment. Standard identification arguments break down if this condition is violated. This paper shows that treatment effects remain partially identified in this case. We derive sharp bounds on the treatment effects, show how to estimate them, and propose ways to construct valid confidence intervals. Our results apply to both sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs. We illustrate our methods by studying the effect of unemployment insurance on unemployment duration in Brazil, where we find strong evidence of manipulation at eligibility cutoffs.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 9604

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions
Single Equation Models: Single Variables: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
Model Construction and Estimation
Thema
regression discontinuity
treatment effects
manipulation
partial identification

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Gerard, Francois
Rokkanen, Miikka
Rothe, Christoph
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
(wo)
Bonn
(wann)
2015

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
20.09.2024, 08:21 MESZ

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Gerard, Francois
  • Rokkanen, Miikka
  • Rothe, Christoph
  • Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Entstanden

  • 2015

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