Arbeitspapier
Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972-2018
The ability of the term structure (specifically the term spread, or the difference between the long and short ends of the yield curve) to predict economic activity is empirically well-established for the US, but less so for small open economies. The literature emphasizes the role of monetary policy for this predictive ability. Between 1972-2018, Ireland experienced three monetary regimes: first, the Irish Pound was fixed to Sterling (1972-1979); second the Pound floated in a band when Ireland was a member of the EMS (1979-1998); and third, as a member of the euro area (1999-2018). Using dynamic probit models and monthly data, I show that the term spread only had predictive power during the second regime, the only one in which the Central Bank of Ireland had any discretion to set interest rates based on domestic conditions.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: QUCEH Working Paper Series ; No. 2020-03
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: Europe: 1913-
- Thema
-
Ireland
term structure
recessions
monetary regimes
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Stuart, Rebecca
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Queen's University Centre for Economic History (QUCEH)
- (wo)
-
Belfast
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Stuart, Rebecca
- Queen's University Centre for Economic History (QUCEH)
Entstanden
- 2020
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