Monetary regime change and business cycles

Arbeitspapier

This paper analyzes to what extent changes in monetary policy regimes influence the business cycle in a small open economy and investigates the impact of policy breaks on the estimation procedure. We estimate a DSGE model on Swedish data, explicitly taking into account the monetary regime change in 1993, from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting. The results suggest that monetary policy reacted strongly to exchange rate movements in the former, and mostly to inflation in the latter. The external sector plays an important role in the economy and the international transmission mechanism is significantly affected by the choice of exchange rate regime. A counterfactual experiment that applies the inflation targeting policy rule on the disturbances from the exchange rate targeting period suggests that such a policy would have led to higher output and employment, but also to a depreciated currency, higher inflation and a more volatile economy. We also show evidence that ignoring the break in the estimation leads to spurious results for both the parameters associated with monetary policy as well as those that are policy-independent.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series ; No. 241

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft
• Subject: Bayesian estimation ; DSGE models ; target zone ; inflation targeting ; regime change ; Geldpolitik ; Inflationssteuerung ; Konjunktur ; Dynamisches Gleichgewicht ; Bayes-Statistik ; Schweden

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Cúrdia, Vasco ; Finocchiaro, Daria
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Sveriges Riksbank
• (where): Stockholm
• (when): 2010

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/81931
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:46 AM CET