Arbeitspapier

Finding Common Ground when Experts Disagree: Belief Dominance over Portfolios of Alternatives

We address the problem of choosing a portfolio of policies under “deep uncertainty.” We introduce the idea of belief dominance as a way to derive a set of non-dominated portfolios and robust individual alternatives. Our approach departs from the tradition of providing a single recommended portfolio; rather, it derives a group of good portfolios. The belief dominance concept allows us to synthesize multiple expert- or model- based beliefs by uncovering the range of alternatives that are intelligent responses to the range of beliefs. This goes beyond solutions that are optimal for any specific set of beliefs to uncover other defensible solutions that may not otherwise be revealed. We illustrate our approach using an important problem in the climate change and energy policy context: choosing among clean energy technology R&D portfolios. We demonstrate how the belief dominance concept can reveal portfolios and alternatives that would otherwise remain uncovered.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Nota di Lavoro ; No. 46.2016

Classification
Wirtschaft
Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Subject
Deep Uncertainty
Decision Making under Uncertainty
Robust
Dominance

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Baker, Erin
Bosetti, Valentina
Salo, Ahti
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
(where)
Milano
(when)
2016

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Baker, Erin
  • Bosetti, Valentina
  • Salo, Ahti
  • Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Time of origin

  • 2016

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