Arbeitspapier
Finding Common Ground when Experts Disagree: Belief Dominance over Portfolios of Alternatives
We address the problem of choosing a portfolio of policies under “deep uncertainty.” We introduce the idea of belief dominance as a way to derive a set of non-dominated portfolios and robust individual alternatives. Our approach departs from the tradition of providing a single recommended portfolio; rather, it derives a group of good portfolios. The belief dominance concept allows us to synthesize multiple expert- or model- based beliefs by uncovering the range of alternatives that are intelligent responses to the range of beliefs. This goes beyond solutions that are optimal for any specific set of beliefs to uncover other defensible solutions that may not otherwise be revealed. We illustrate our approach using an important problem in the climate change and energy policy context: choosing among clean energy technology R&D portfolios. We demonstrate how the belief dominance concept can reveal portfolios and alternatives that would otherwise remain uncovered.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Nota di Lavoro ; No. 46.2016
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- Subject
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Deep Uncertainty
Decision Making under Uncertainty
Robust
Dominance
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Baker, Erin
Bosetti, Valentina
Salo, Ahti
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
- (where)
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Milano
- (when)
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2016
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Baker, Erin
- Bosetti, Valentina
- Salo, Ahti
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
Time of origin
- 2016