Arbeitspapier
Fiscal risk and its drivers: An empirical analysis
This paper describes and quantifies fiscal risk in advanced and developing economies. Forecast errors in GDP growth explain nearly half of fiscal risk in advanced economies. However, errors in growth forecasts are less important in explaining fiscal risk in low- and middle-income countries. Most of the forecast errors in the debt-to-GDP ratio cannot be explained with standard debt-dynamics variables and needs to be attributed to the "the unexplained part of debt". Fiscal risk is high in bad-times, even when they are fully anticipated. In developing and emerging market economies this result is linked to negative balance sheet effects associated with foreign currency debt. The main drivers of fiscal risk in ADB borrowing countries are exchange rate volatility, commodity prices and small economic size.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper ; No. HEIDWP17-2020
Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
National Budget; Budget Systems
National Deficit; Surplus
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
National Budget; Budget Systems
National Deficit; Surplus
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
Thema
Fiscal policy
Public debt
Fiscal sustainability
Public debt
Fiscal sustainability
Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Panizza, Ugo
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
(wo)
Geneva
(wann)
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
20.09.2024, 08:21 MESZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Panizza, Ugo
- Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
Entstanden
- 2020
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