Intrinsic predictability limits arising from Indian Ocean Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) heating: effects on tropical and extratropical teleconnections
Abstract ∘ E). This guarantees that the spread between reforecasts within an ensemble is due to perturbations in heat sources only in the Indian Ocean sector. The point-wise spread in the intra-ensemble (or error) variance of vertically integrated tropical heating Q Q Q (40 to 50 d). In contrast, the PW component of the 200 hPa Rossby wave source, which is responsible for propagating the influence of tropical heating to the extratropics, is only predictable for 20 to 30 d. A substantial ensemble spread of 300 hPa meridional wind propagates from the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere storm-track regions by days 15–16. Following the growth of upper-tropospheric spread in planetary wave heat flux, the stratosphere provides a feedback in enhancing the error via downward propagation towards the end of the reforecasts.
- Location
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Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
- Extent
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Online-Ressource
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Intrinsic predictability limits arising from Indian Ocean Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) heating: effects on tropical and extratropical teleconnections ; volume:4 ; number:4 ; year:2023 ; pages:1001-1018 ; extent:18
Weather and climate dynamics ; 4, Heft 4 (2023), 1001-1018 (gesamt 18)
- Creator
- DOI
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10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:101:1-2023112303185049039868
- Rights
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Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
- Last update
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15.08.2025, 7:24 AM CEST
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Associated
- Straus, David Martin
- Domeisen, Daniela
- Lock, Sarah-Jane
- Molteni, Franco
- Yadav, Priyanka
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