Artikel
Regionalization of climate teleconnections across Central Asian mountains improves the predictability of seasonal precipitation
Mountains play a critical role in water cycles in semiarid regions by providing for the majority of the total runoff. However, hydroclimatic conditions in mountainous regions vary considerably in space and time, with high interannual fluctuations driven by large-scale climate oscillations. Here, we investigated teleconnections between global climate oscillations and the peak precipitation season from February to June in the Tian-Shan and Pamir Mountains of Central Asia. Using hierarchical climate regionalization, we identified seven subregions with distinct precipitation patterns, and assessed correlations with selected climate oscillations at different time lags. We then simulated the seasonal precipitation in each subregion from 1979 to 2020 using the most prevalent teleconnections as predictors with support vector regression (SVR). Our findings indicate that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Eastern Atlantic/West Russia pattern are among the major determinants of the seasonal precipitation. The dominant lead-lag times of these oscillations make them reliable predictors ahead of the season. We detected notable teleconnections with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Scandinavian Pattern, with their strongest associations emerging after onset of the season. While the SVR-based models exhibit robust prediction skills, they tend to underestimate precipitation in extremely wet seasons. Overall, our study highlights the value of appropriate spatial and temporal aggregations for exploring the impacts of climate teleconnections on precipitation in complex terrains.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Journal: Environmental Research Letters ; ISSN: 1748-9326 ; Volume: 17 ; Year: 2022 ; Issue: 5 ; Bristol: IOP Publishing
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
climate teleconnections
Central Asia
machine learning
mountains
seasonal forecasting
precipitation
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Umirbekov, Atabek
Peña-Guerrero, Mayra Daniela
Müller, Daniel
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
IOP Publishing
- (wo)
-
Bristol
- (wann)
-
2022
- DOI
-
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac6229
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Artikel
Beteiligte
- Umirbekov, Atabek
- Peña-Guerrero, Mayra Daniela
- Müller, Daniel
- IOP Publishing
Entstanden
- 2022
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Regionalization of climate teleconnections across Central Asian mountains improves the predictability of seasonal precipitation
Regionalization of climate teleconnections across Central Asian mountains improves the predictability of seasonal precipitation
Extreme precipitation in Northern Italy : genesis, classification and predictability
Seasonal variability of scavenger visitations is independent of carrion predictability
Rapid and positive responses of plants to lower precipitation predictability
What controls precipitation δ18O in the southern Tibetan Plateau at seasonal and intra-seasonal scales?
Predictability improves dual-task performance: the effects of explicit and implicit learning
Seasonal predictability of wintertime windstorm climate over the North Atlantic and Europe
Heavy Precipitation Events in the Western Mediterranean Area: Physical Processes and Predictability
Seasonal precipitation, river discharge, and sediment flux in the western Himalaya
Regionalization vs. Globalization
Spatial Analysis of Seasonal Precipitation over Iran: Co-Variation with Climate Indices
Regionalization of climate teleconnections across Central Asian mountains improves the predictability of seasonal precipitation
Regionalization of climate teleconnections across Central Asian mountains improves the predictability of seasonal precipitation
Extreme precipitation in Northern Italy : genesis, classification and predictability
Seasonal variability of scavenger visitations is independent of carrion predictability
Rapid and positive responses of plants to lower precipitation predictability
What controls precipitation δ18O in the southern Tibetan Plateau at seasonal and intra-seasonal scales?
Predictability improves dual-task performance: the effects of explicit and implicit learning
Seasonal predictability of wintertime windstorm climate over the North Atlantic and Europe
Heavy Precipitation Events in the Western Mediterranean Area: Physical Processes and Predictability
Seasonal precipitation, river discharge, and sediment flux in the western Himalaya
Regionalization vs. Globalization
Spatial Analysis of Seasonal Precipitation over Iran: Co-Variation with Climate Indices
Regionalization of climate teleconnections across Central Asian mountains improves the predictability of seasonal precipitation
Regionalization of climate teleconnections across Central Asian mountains improves the predictability of seasonal precipitation
Extreme precipitation in Northern Italy : genesis, classification and predictability
Seasonal variability of scavenger visitations is independent of carrion predictability
Rapid and positive responses of plants to lower precipitation predictability
What controls precipitation δ18O in the southern Tibetan Plateau at seasonal and intra-seasonal scales?
Predictability improves dual-task performance: the effects of explicit and implicit learning
Seasonal predictability of wintertime windstorm climate over the North Atlantic and Europe
Heavy Precipitation Events in the Western Mediterranean Area: Physical Processes and Predictability
Seasonal precipitation, river discharge, and sediment flux in the western Himalaya
Regionalization vs. Globalization