Arbeitspapier
Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics
Recent events suggest that uncertainty changes play a major role in U.S. labor market fluctuations. This study analyzes the impact of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics. Using a vector autoregression approach, we show that uncertainty shocks measured by stock market volatility have a significant impact on the U.S. unemployment rate. We then develop a quantitative version of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) model, in which uncertainty shocks hit the economy. Given the significant nonlinearities of the DMP model, we show that the introduction of uncertainty shocks not only allows this textbook model to account for observed characteristics of the U.S. labor market dynamics, with reasonable values for calibrated parameters, but also for the impact of rare episodes such as economic crises.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: IZA Discussion Papers ; No. 13438
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
- Thema
-
uncertainty shocks
unemployment dynamics
search and matching
non-linearities
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Kandoussi, Malak
Langot, François
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
- (wo)
-
Bonn
- (wann)
-
2020
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Kandoussi, Malak
- Langot, François
- Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
Entstanden
- 2020
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