Predicting US bank failures with internet search volume data

Arbeitspapier

This study investigates how well weekly Google search volumes track and predict bank failures in the United States between 2007 and 2012, contributing to the expanding literature that exploits internet data for the prediction of events. Different duration models with time-varying covariates are estimated. Higher Google search volumes go hand in hand with higher failure rates, and the coefficients for the Google volume growth index are highly significant. However, Google's predictive power quickly dissipates for future failure rates.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Paper ; No. 214

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Financial Forecasting and Simulation ; General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation ; General Financial Markets: Other ; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages ; Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation
• Subject: bank failures ; internet ; financial crisis ; Google ; survival analysis

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Schaffner, Florian
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of Zurich, Department of Economics
• (where): Zurich
• (when): 2015

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.5167/uzh-118268
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/126603
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET