Arbeitspapier
The Multistep Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition
The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value the series would take if it were on its long-run path. The paper in-troduces the multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which arises when the forecast function is obtained by the direct autoregressive approach, which optimizes the predictive ability of the AR model at forecast horizons greater than one. We compare our proposal with the standard Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, for which the forecast function is obtained by iterating the one-step-ahead predictions via the chain rule. We illustrate that the multistep Beveridge-Nelson trend is more efficient than the standard one in the presence of model misspecification and we subsequently assess the predictive validity of the extracted transitory component with respect to future growth.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: EERI Research Paper Series ; No. 24/2009
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Thema
-
Trend and Cycle
Forecasting
Filtering
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Proietti, Tommaso
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI)
- (wo)
-
Brussels
- (wann)
-
2009
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Proietti, Tommaso
- Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI)
Entstanden
- 2009
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