Fueling growth when oil peaks: Directed technological change and the limits to efficiency

Arbeitspapier

While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate trends in energy use and productivity growth with the intertemporal dynamics of forward looking resource markets. Combining scarcity-rent driven energy supply (in the spirit of Hotelling) with profit-driven Directed Technical Change (in the spirit of Romer/Acemoglu), we generate transitional dynamics that can be qualitatively calibrated to current trends. The long-run properties of the model are studied to examine whether current trends are sustainable. We highlight the role of extraction costs in mining.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 3977

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models ; Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development ; Energy and the Macroeconomy
• Thema: non-renewable resources ; energy ; economic growth ; innovation ; directed technical change ; Neue Wachstumstheorie ; Erschöpfbare Ressourcen ; Energieversorgung ; Innovation ; Technischer Fortschritt ; Wirtschaftliche Effizienz ; Theorie

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): André, Francisco J. ; Smulders, Sjak
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (wo): Munich
• (wann): 2012

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/66563
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:46 MEZ