Artikel
Real estate price polarization projected to increase until 2030 in Germany
Demographic projections for Germany indicate a drop in the population of many regions by 2030. This is likely to have an impact on the real estate market. Our report presents the result of a model calculation of asking prices for residential real estate in Germany up to 2030 based on market data from empirica-systeme GmbH and a population projection from the Bertelsmann Foundation. Depending on the model specifications, it appears that real estate price polarization will increase by 2030. As with all model calculations, the results are subject to uncertainty. In the scenario presented here, we strictly focus on the demographic effect on real estate prices. According to our projections, in one-third of all rural districts (Landkreise) and urban districts (kreisfreie Städte), the market value of condominiums will fall by over 25 percent. This will also be the case for single- and two-family homes in one-quarter of all districts. Some regions in eastern Germany will be hit particularly hard by this development. In and around urban centers, however, the trend of rising prices is expected to continue. Our findings also show that the polarization of real estate prices might cause the inequality of wealth in Germany to rise slightly.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Journal: DIW Economic Bulletin ; ISSN: 2192-7219 ; Volume: 7 ; Year: 2017 ; Issue: 25/26 ; Pages: 245-253 ; Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
- Subject
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demographic change
property prices
projection
SOEP
Empirica-Systeme Marktdaten
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Westermeier, Christian
Grabka, Markus M.
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
- (where)
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Berlin
- (when)
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2017
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Artikel
Associated
- Westermeier, Christian
- Grabka, Markus M.
- Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
Time of origin
- 2017
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