Arbeitspapier
Taking the temperature: forecasting GDP growth for mainland in China
We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, estimated using a dynamic factor model.Our leading indicator is constructed from three series: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index.These series are found to share a common, unobservable element from which our indicator can be identified.This indicator is then incorporated into out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts of Chinese GDP growth.Recursive out-of-sample accuracy tests indicate that the smallscale factor model approach leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting Chinese business conditions.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- ISBN
-
952-462-820-1
- Erschienen in
-
Series: BOFIT Discussion Papers ; No. 6/2006
Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Thema
Forecasting
China
Leading Indicator
Factor Model
Growth Cycles
China
Leading Indicator
Factor Model
Growth Cycles
Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Curran, Declan
Funke, Michael
Funke, Michael
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
(wo)
Helsinki
(wann)
2006
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
20.09.2024, 08:21 MESZ
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Curran, Declan
- Funke, Michael
- Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Entstanden
- 2006
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