Arbeitspapier
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?
The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the forecasts over the entire period and in three sub-periods. We conclude that, with some exceptions, the errors of the German forecasters were similar to those of their US and UK counterparts. While the absolute size of the forecast errors has declined, this is not the case for relative accuracy. A benchmark comparison of these predictions with the ex post forecasts of a macroeconometric model indicates that the quality of the growth forecasts can be improved but that the expected increase in accuracy may not be substantial.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Technical Report ; No. 2003,31
- Thema
-
Forecast evaluations
macroeconomic forecasting
accuracy limits
Konjunkturprognose
Prognoseverfahren
Deutschland
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Heilemann, Ullrich
Stekler, H. O.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475 - Komplexitätsreduktion in Multivariaten Datenstrukturen
- (wo)
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Dortmund
- (wann)
-
2003
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Heilemann, Ullrich
- Stekler, H. O.
- Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475 - Komplexitätsreduktion in Multivariaten Datenstrukturen
Entstanden
- 2003