Testing for Predictability in a Noninvertible ARMA Model

Arbeitspapier

We develop likelihood-based tests for autocorrelation and predictability in a first order non-Gaussian and noninvertible ARMA model. Tests based on a special case of the general model, referred to as an all-pass model, are also obtained. Data generated by an all-pass process are uncorrelated but, in the non-Gaussian case, dependent and nonlinearly predictable. Therefore, in addition to autocorrelation the proposed tests can also be used to test for nonlinear predictability. This makes our tests different from their previous counterparts based on conventional invertible ARMA models. Unlike in the invertible case, our tests can also be derived by standard methods that lead to chi-squared or standard normal limiting distributions. A further convenience of the noninvertible ARMA model is that, to some extent, it can allow for conditional heteroskedasticity in the data which is useful when testing for predictability in economic and financial data. This is also illustrated by our empirical application to U.S. stock returns, where our tests indicate the presence of nonlinear predictability.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Working Paper ; No. 1225

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Financial Econometrics ; Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
• Subject: Non-Gaussian time series ; noninvertible ARMA model ; all-pass process ; Stochastischer Prozess ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; ARMA-Modell ; Schätzung ; Börsenkurs ; Kapitaleinkommen ; USA

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Lanne, Markku ; Meitz, Mika ; Saikkonen, Pentti
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum (ERF)
• (where): Istanbul
• (when): 2012

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/108602
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET