Quantifying Catastrophic and Climate Impacted Hazards Based on Local Expert Opinions

Arbeitspapier

The analysis of catastrophic and climate impacted hazards is a challenging but important exercise, as the occurrence of such events is usually associated with high damage and uncertainty. Often, at the local level, there is a lack of information on rare extreme events, such that available data is not sufficient to fit a distribution and derive parameter values for the frequency and severity distributions. This paper discusses local assessments of extreme events and examines the potential of using expert opinions in order to obtain values for the distribution parameters. In particular, we illustrate a simple approach, where a local expert is required to only specify two percentiles of the loss distribution in order to provide an estimate for the severity distribution of climate impacted hazards. In our approach, we focus on so-called heavy-tailed distributions for the severity, such as the Lognormal, Weibull and Burr XII distribution. These distributions are widely used to fit data from catastrophic events and can also represent extreme losses or the so-called tail of the distribution. An illustration of the method is provided utilising an example that quantifies the risk of bushfires in a local area in Northern Sydney.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Nota di Lavoro ; No. 93.2014

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming ; Environmental Economics: Government Policy
• Thema: Catastrophic Risks ; Climate Impacted Hazards ; Expert Opinions ; Local Level Decision Making ; Loss Distribution Approach

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Keighley, Tim ; Longden, Thomas ; Mathew, Supriya ; Trück, Stefan
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
• (wo): Milano
• (wann): 2014

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/107735
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ