Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle

Arbeitspapier

The paper investigates a set of possible leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle using aggregated quarterly data. The theoretical plausibility, the behavior at business cycle turning points and the mean leads are analyzed. Furthermore, evidence from cross-correlations and Granger-causality tests is presented. Taking all evidence together, real monetary aggregates, nominal interest rates and the interest rate spread are recommended as leading indicators, whereas survey data on order inflow and production expectations are the best coincident indicators.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Year: 1998 ; Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW)

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• Subject: Business Cycle ; Leading Indicator ; European Monetary Union ; Konjunkturindikator ; Konjunkturprognose ; Prognoseverfahren ; Schätzung ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; EU-Staaten

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Döpke, Jörg
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW) ; ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
• (where): Kiel
• (when): 1998

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/46875
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET