Arbeitspapier
Investment in Swedish Manufacturing: Analysis and Forecasts
This paper uses a neoclassical investment model extended with installation costs for capital, agency costs for investment financing, and the possibility of the firm being output constrained as a framework for an empirical analysis of investment behaviour in the Swedish manufacturing industry. The theory is implemented within a multivariate error-correction approach on data covering the time period 1951 to 1995, and we gain the following main results: (1) Tobins average Q is not the sole determinant of investment, neither in the short nor in the long run, and other variables like real output and capital gearing also affect investment activity; (2) the out-of-sample forecasts of the model track the evolution of actual investment growth quite impressively, especially at short- and medium-term horizons (1-2 years); (3) a relative equity-price variable is shown to constitute a good approximation of average Q, both for empirical modelling in general and forecasting in particular.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series ; No. 95
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Forecasting investment
Multivariate error-correction model
Neoclassical investment theory
Tobin's Q
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Assarsson, Bengt
Berg, Claes
Jansson, Per
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Sveriges Riksbank
- (wo)
-
Stockholm
- (wann)
-
1999
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Assarsson, Bengt
- Berg, Claes
- Jansson, Per
- Sveriges Riksbank
Entstanden
- 1999
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
External Economies at the Firm Level: Evidence from Swedish Manufacturing
Inefficient use of competitors' forecasts?
Inflation Forecast Targeting: The Swedish Experience
The Swedish external position and the Krona
Forecasting Swedish Inflation With a Markov Switching VAR
Swedish Export Price Determination: Pricing to Market Shares?
Capital Adjustment Patterns in Swedish Manufacturing Firms: What Model Do They Suggest?
Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information
Amortization requirements and household indebtedness: An application to Swedish-style mortgages
Re-evaluating Swedish membership in EMU: Evidence from an estimated model
Using a new open economy macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts
Exchange Rate Exposure, Foreign Involvement and Currency Hedging of Firms - Some Swedish Evidence
External Economies at the Firm Level: Evidence from Swedish Manufacturing
Inefficient use of competitors' forecasts?
Inflation Forecast Targeting: The Swedish Experience
The Swedish external position and the Krona
Forecasting Swedish Inflation With a Markov Switching VAR
Swedish Export Price Determination: Pricing to Market Shares?
Capital Adjustment Patterns in Swedish Manufacturing Firms: What Model Do They Suggest?
Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information
Amortization requirements and household indebtedness: An application to Swedish-style mortgages
Re-evaluating Swedish membership in EMU: Evidence from an estimated model
Using a new open economy macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts
Exchange Rate Exposure, Foreign Involvement and Currency Hedging of Firms - Some Swedish Evidence
External Economies at the Firm Level: Evidence from Swedish Manufacturing
Inefficient use of competitors' forecasts?
Inflation Forecast Targeting: The Swedish Experience
The Swedish external position and the Krona
Forecasting Swedish Inflation With a Markov Switching VAR
Swedish Export Price Determination: Pricing to Market Shares?
Capital Adjustment Patterns in Swedish Manufacturing Firms: What Model Do They Suggest?
Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information
Amortization requirements and household indebtedness: An application to Swedish-style mortgages
Re-evaluating Swedish membership in EMU: Evidence from an estimated model
Using a new open economy macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts