Political Entrenchment and GDP Misreporting

Arbeitspapier

By examining discrepancies between officially reported GDP growth figures and the actual economic growth implied by satellite-based night time light (NTL) density, we investigate whether democracies manipulate officially reported GDP figures, and if so, whether such manipulation pays political dividends. We find that the over-reporting of growth rates does indeed precede increases in popular support, with around a 1% over-statement associated with a 0.5% increase in voter intentions for the incumbent. These results are robust to allowing the elasticity of official GDP statistics to NTL to be country specific, as well as accounting for the quality of governance, and checks and balances on executive power.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CREMA Working Paper ; No. 2019-02

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior ; Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption ; Institutions and Growth
• Subject: Manipulation ; political entrenchment ; electoral cycles ; trust ; popular support ; GDP ; night lights

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Chan, Ho Fai ; Frey, Bruno S. ; Skali, Ahmed ; Torgler, Benno
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA)
• (where): Zürich
• (when): 2019

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/214611
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:46 AM CET