Forecasting Co-Volatilities via Factor Models with Asymmetry and Long Memory in Realized Covariance

Arbeitspapier

Modelling covariance structures is known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In order to avoid this problem for forecasting, the authors propose a new factor multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) model for realized covariance measures that accommodates asymmetry and long memory. Using the basic structure of the fMSV model, the authors extend the dynamic correlation MSV model, the conditional/stochastic Wishart autoregressive models, the matrix-exponential MSV model, and the Cholesky MSV model. Empirical results for 7 financial asset returns for US stock returns indicate that the new fMSV models outperform existing dynamic conditional correlation models for forecasting future covariances. Among the new fMSV models, the Cholesky MSV model with long memory and asymmetry shows stable and better forecasting performance for one-day, five-day and ten-day horizons in the periods before, during and after the global financial crisis.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 14-037/III

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Financial Econometrics ; Financial Forecasting and Simulation
• Subject: Dimension reduction ; Factor Model ; Multivariate Stochastic Volatility ; Leverage Effects ; Long Memory ; Realized Volatility.

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Asai, Manabu ; McAleer, Michael
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Tinbergen Institute
• (where): Amsterdam and Rotterdam
• (when): 2014

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/98872
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET