Arbeitspapier
Trend fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics
We estimate a multivariate unobserved components-stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time-series properties of the real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered. The model generally outperforms a simple benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: KOF Working Papers ; No. 393
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Foreign Exchange
Monetary Policy
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- Thema
-
exchange rate models
trend ination
natural rate of unemployment
Taylor rule
unobserved components-stochastic volatility model
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Huber, Florian
Kaufmann, Daniel
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
- (wo)
-
Zurich
- (wann)
-
2015
- DOI
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doi:10.3929/ethz-a-010513063
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Huber, Florian
- Kaufmann, Daniel
- ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Entstanden
- 2015