Arbeitspapier

Trend fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics

We estimate a multivariate unobserved components-stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time-series properties of the real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered. The model generally outperforms a simple benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: KOF Working Papers ; No. 393

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Foreign Exchange
Monetary Policy
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Thema
exchange rate models
trend ination
natural rate of unemployment
Taylor rule
unobserved components-stochastic volatility model

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Huber, Florian
Kaufmann, Daniel
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
(wo)
Zurich
(wann)
2015

DOI
doi:10.3929/ethz-a-010513063
Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ

Datenpartner

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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Huber, Florian
  • Kaufmann, Daniel
  • ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute

Entstanden

  • 2015

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