Arbeitspapier
Do countries default in bad times? The role of alternative detrending techniques
Quantitative models of sovereign debt predict that countries should default during deep recessions. However, empirical research on sovereign debt has found a surprisingly large share of "good times" defaults (i.e., defaults that happen when GDP is above trend). Existing evidence also indicates that, on average, defaults happen when output is close to potential. This paper reassesses the empirical evidence and shows that the detrending technique proposed by Hamilton (2018) yields results that are closer to the predictions of standard quantitative models of sovereign debt.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper ; No. HEIDWP06-2022
Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
International Lending and Debt Problems
Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
International Lending and Debt Problems
Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Thema
Sovereign Debt
Default
Business Cycles
Default
Business Cycles
Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Panizza, Ugo
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
(wo)
Geneva
(wann)
2022
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
20.09.2024, 08:22 MESZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Panizza, Ugo
- Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
Entstanden
- 2022
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