Arbeitspapier

The perception of climate sensitivity: Revealing priors from posteriors

A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. In practice, the data and the posterior are often observed but not the prior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to (equilibrium) climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into their prior beliefs. It appears that the IPCC scientists have agreed a priori on a value for the climate equilibrium between 3.0-4.0 degrees Celsius, while judging the occurrence of a real disaster much more likely than the previous report predicts.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. TI 2020-046/III

Classification
Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
Subject
Revealed prior
climate sensitivity
IPCC

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Ikefuji, Masako
Magnus, Jan R.
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Tinbergen Institute
(where)
Amsterdam and Rotterdam
(when)
2020

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET

Data provider

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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.

Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Ikefuji, Masako
  • Magnus, Jan R.
  • Tinbergen Institute

Time of origin

  • 2020

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