Arbeitspapier
The perception of climate sensitivity: Revealing priors from posteriors
A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. In practice, the data and the posterior are often observed but not the prior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to (equilibrium) climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into their prior beliefs. It appears that the IPCC scientists have agreed a priori on a value for the climate equilibrium between 3.0-4.0 degrees Celsius, while judging the occurrence of a real disaster much more likely than the previous report predicts.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. TI 2020-046/III
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
- Subject
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Revealed prior
climate sensitivity
IPCC
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Ikefuji, Masako
Magnus, Jan R.
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Tinbergen Institute
- (where)
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Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (when)
-
2020
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Ikefuji, Masako
- Magnus, Jan R.
- Tinbergen Institute
Time of origin
- 2020
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