Konferenzbeitrag
Natural Disasters and Macroeconomic Performance: The Role of Residential Investment
Recent empirical research has shown that income per capita in the aftermath of natural disasters is not necessarily lower than before the event. In many cases, income is not significantly affected and surprisingly, can even respond positively to natural disasters. Here, we propose a simple theory based on the neoclassical growth model that explains these observations. Specifically, we show that GDP is driven above its pre-shock level when natural disasters destroy predominantly residential housing (or other durable goods). Disasters destroying mainly productive capital, in contrast, are predicted to reduce GDP. Insignificant responses of GDP can be expected when disasters destroy about equally residential structures and productive capital. We also show that disasters, irrespective of whether their impact on GDP is positive, negative, or insignificant, entail considerable losses of aggregate welfare.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2015: Ökonomische Entwicklung - Theorie und Politik - Session: Housing and the Macroeconomy ; No. C06-V3
Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
Housing Supply and Markets
Strulik, Holger
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
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20.09.2024, 08:24 MESZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Konferenzbeitrag
Beteiligte
- Trimborn, Timo
- Strulik, Holger
Entstanden
- 2015