Conflict experiences and household expectations on recovery: Survey evidence from northern Uganda

Arbeitspapier

We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: DIW Discussion Papers ; No. 1059

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Expectations; Speculations ; National Security and War ; Economic Development: General
• Subject: Conflict ; Expectations ; War ; Welfare ; Politischer Konflikt ; Erwartungstheorie ; Konjunktur ; Schätzung ; Uganda

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Bozzoli, Carlos ; Brück, Tilman ; Muhumuza, Tony
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
• (where): Berlin
• (when): 2010

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/49430
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET