Current Scenarios for the Demographic Future of the World: The Cases of Russia and Germany

Abstract: In this article, we explore the demographic future of the world with a focus on scenarios for Russia and Germany. We seek an alternative to the Western standards of scenarios for global demographic development. We consider demographic development both in a positive and negative sense. Our analysis rests on such theoretical structures as the general theory of population, the classical theory of demographic transition, the concepts of the 'second', 'third', and 'fourth' demographic transitions, and scenarios for the 'Eurasian demographic development path'. We employ a range of methods from comparative demography as well as historical analogies, expert evaluations and demographic forecasts. We analyse the patterns of current demographic development in Russia and Germany to explore various demographic scenarios. In the conclusion, we stress the need for Russia and other countries, including Germany, to embark on the 'Eurasian demographic development path' in view of the countries' geog

Object Details

• Alternative title: Современные сценарии демографического будущего мира (на примере России и Германии)
• Location: Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Frankfurt am Main
• Extent: Online-Ressource
• Language: Englisch
• Notes: Veröffentlichungsversion ; begutachtet (peer reviewed) ; In: Baltic Region ; 10 (2018) 3 ; 4-18

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie, Anthropologie

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (where): Mannheim
• (when): 2018
• Creator: Iontsev, Vladimir A. ; Subbotin, Alexander A.

Further information

• DOI: 10.5922/2079-8555-2018-3-1
• URN: urn:nbn:de:101:1-2019052313533293929162
• Rights: Open Access; Open Access; Der Zugriff auf das Objekt ist unbeschränkt möglich.
• Last update: 25.03.2025, 1:41 PM CET