Arbeitspapier
The Effects of Monetary Policy: Theory with Measured Expectations
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations appearing in the consumption functions for alternative policy scenarios with tailored surveys. Feeding these individual-level expectations into the model illustrates that a modest forward guidance statement in March 2021 would have reduced aggregate consumption by 0.14 percent on impact and an interest rate hike of 40 basis points in March 2022 would have reduced aggregate consumption by 0.30 percent on impact.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
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Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 10216
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
Household Saving; Personal Finance
Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
Expectations; Speculations
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- Thema
-
monetary policy
expectation formation
aggregate consumption
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Roth, Christopher
Wiederholt, Mirko
Wohlfart, Johannes
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
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Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2023
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Roth, Christopher
- Wiederholt, Mirko
- Wohlfart, Johannes
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2023