Assessing the trade impacts of the ASEAN+6 FTA : the case of Lao People’s Democratic Republic

Arbeitspapier

Using an unbalanced panel dataset of bilateral exports from 1992 to 2009, this paper assesses the potential trade impacts of the expansion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6 on the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). It finds that bilateral exports are positively related to the overall bilateral country size and similarity in country size, but inversely related to the relative factor endowment differences, transportation costs, and import tariffs. Simulation results show that the formation of free trade agreement (FTA) between ASEAN and the Plus-6 economies (the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in East Asia; and the other three economies of Australia, India, and New Zealand) can increase bilateral trade between the Lao PDR and ASEAN+6 by $1 billion, and ASEAN+3 by $981 million. Nonetheless, trade balance of the Lao PDR is likely to worsen in both the ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6 FTAs because they stimulate more imports than exports.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration ; No. 126

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models ; Empirical Studies of Trade ; Economic Integration
• Subject: East Asia ; trade flow ; gravity model ; Lao PDR

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Suvannaphakdy, Sithanonxay ; Tang, Hsiao Chink ; DiCaprio, Alisa
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Asian Development Bank (ADB)
• (where): Manila
• (when): 2014

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/109621
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET