The golden hello and political transitions

Arbeitspapier

We analyze the influence of IMF and World Bank programs on political regime transitions. We develop an extended version of Acemoglu and Robinson's [American Economic Review 91, 2001] model of political transitions to show how the anticipation of new loans from international financial institutions can trigger political transitions which would not otherwise have taken place. We test this unexplored implication of the theory empirically. We find in a world sample from 1970 to 2002 that the anticipation of receiving new programs immediately after a political regime transition increases the probability of a transition from autocracy to democracy and reduces the probability of democratic survival.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: KOF Working Papers ; No. 316

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations ; Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior ; International Relations and International Political Economy: Other ; International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
• Subject: Political transitions ; democracy ; autocracy ; IMF ; World Bank ; IWF-Kredit ; Entwicklungsfinanzierung ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Autoritäres System ; Demokratisierung ; Politische Reform ; Politische Stabilität ; Theorie ; Schätzung ; Welt

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Aidt, Toke ; Albornoz, Facundo ; Gassebner, Martin
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
• (where): Zurich
• (when): 2012

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.3929/ethz-a-007554467
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/80838
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET