Signals from housing and lending booms

Arbeitspapier

The contribution of this paper is to revisit the Early Warning System (EWS) literature by analysing selected episodes of financial market crisis, i.e. those preceded by a spell of credit and real estate expansions. The aim is to disentangle instances when this constitutes a natural phenomenon associated with a process of financial development and innovation from those where it constitutes a worrisome signal. We identify economic variables that have leading indicator properties, thus helping to distinguish between “benign” episodes from those likely ending with downward pressures on the exchange rate or even a fully-fledged banking crisis. We find that a large current account deficit, a fall in price competitiveness, strong real growth and high public debt-to-GDP ratio increase the probability that a lending or housing boom would be accompanied by financial market tensions shortly after the peak.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1094

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Foreign Exchange ; International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Thema: credit booms ; Early Warning System ; Financial crises ; House prices ; Frühwarnsystem ; Finanzkrise ; Immobilienmarkt ; Kreditmarkt ; Spekulationsblase ; Welt

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Bunda, Irina ; Ca' Zorzi, Michele
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2009

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153528
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ