Artikel
The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics - The case of the Turkish lira
This paper examines whether and how expectations have contributed to the turbulent path of the Turkish lira since 2008. We derive uncertainty measures surrounding gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rates based on survey data from Consensus Economics. Our results illustrate that forecasts have affected realized exchange rates and stock market returns via increased uncertainty. We also show that expectations regarding monetary policy have changed throughout the sample period. In line with, a gradual adjustment of expectations professionals have accounted for the violation of the Taylor rule.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Journal: Journal of Forecasting ; ISSN: 1099-131X ; Volume: 42 ; Year: 2023 ; Issue: 3 ; Pages: 625-642 ; Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
- Subject
-
disagreement
expectations
foreign exchange
survey data
Taylor rule
Turkish lira
uncertainty
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Beckmann, Joscha
Czudaj, Robert L.
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Wiley
- (where)
-
Hoboken, NJ
- (when)
-
2023
- DOI
-
doi:10.1002/for.2940
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Artikel
Associated
- Beckmann, Joscha
- Czudaj, Robert L.
- Wiley
Time of origin
- 2023
Other Objects (12)
The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics - The case of the Turkish lira
Before the fall was the Turkish Lira overvalued?
Misaligned? Overvalued? The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira
Devaluation expectations and speculative attacks on the currency
Global New Turkish Lira Bond Issuances
Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts
The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/ Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics and Forecasting
Expectations and contagion in self-fulfilling currency attacks
Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions
Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions
The Healthy Currency – An Alternative to Stable Currency
Mezza lira (½ Lira)
The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics - The case of the Turkish lira
Before the fall was the Turkish Lira overvalued?
Misaligned? Overvalued? The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira
Devaluation expectations and speculative attacks on the currency
Global New Turkish Lira Bond Issuances
Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts
The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/ Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics and Forecasting
Expectations and contagion in self-fulfilling currency attacks
Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions
Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions
The Healthy Currency – An Alternative to Stable Currency
Mezza lira (½ Lira)
The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics - The case of the Turkish lira
Before the fall was the Turkish Lira overvalued?
Misaligned? Overvalued? The Untold Story of the Turkish Lira
Devaluation expectations and speculative attacks on the currency
Global New Turkish Lira Bond Issuances
Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts
The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/ Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics and Forecasting
Expectations and contagion in self-fulfilling currency attacks
Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions
Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions
The Healthy Currency – An Alternative to Stable Currency