Arbeitspapier
The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany
How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893-1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: ECONtribute Discussion Paper ; No. 241
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: Europe: 1913-
National Government Expenditures and Health
- Subject
-
Pandemics
Elections
Health
Voting behavior
Issue salience
Issue ownership
Weimar Republic
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Bauernschuster, Stefan
Blum, Matthias
Hornung, Erik
Koenig, Christoph
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Reinhard Selten Institute (RSI)
- (where)
-
Bonn and Cologne
- (when)
-
2023
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Bauernschuster, Stefan
- Blum, Matthias
- Hornung, Erik
- Koenig, Christoph
- University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Reinhard Selten Institute (RSI)
Time of origin
- 2023