Arbeitspapier

The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany

How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893-1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: ECONtribute Discussion Paper ; No. 241

Classification
Wirtschaft
Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: Europe: 1913-
National Government Expenditures and Health
Subject
Pandemics
Elections
Health
Voting behavior
Issue salience
Issue ownership
Weimar Republic

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Bauernschuster, Stefan
Blum, Matthias
Hornung, Erik
Koenig, Christoph
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Reinhard Selten Institute (RSI)
(where)
Bonn and Cologne
(when)
2023

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Bauernschuster, Stefan
  • Blum, Matthias
  • Hornung, Erik
  • Koenig, Christoph
  • University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Reinhard Selten Institute (RSI)

Time of origin

  • 2023

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