The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany

Arbeitspapier

How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893-1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ECONtribute Discussion Paper ; No. 241

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior ; Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health ; Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: Europe: 1913- ; National Government Expenditures and Health
• Subject: Pandemics ; Elections ; Health ; Voting behavior ; Issue salience ; Issue ownership ; Weimar Republic

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Bauernschuster, Stefan ; Blum, Matthias ; Hornung, Erik ; Koenig, Christoph
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Reinhard Selten Institute (RSI)
• (where): Bonn and Cologne
• (when): 2023

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/278536
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET