Arbeitspapier
The R-word index for Switzerland
In a pioneering attempt we present the R(ecession)-word index for Switzerland. We evaluate its predictive ability of GDP growth using real-time vintages of GDP data, closely simulating flow of information in the past. We find that inclusion of the R-word index led to statistically significant improvement in forecast accuracy over the benchmark autoregressive model. Largest improvements in forecast accuracy were observed in the period around the Great Recession.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: KOF Working Papers ; No. 304
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Thema
-
Recession
nowcasting
real-time data
Switzerland
Konjunktur
Sozialprodukt
Prognoseverfahren
Schweiz
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Iselin, David
Siliverstovs, Boriss
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
- (wo)
-
Zurich
- (wann)
-
2012
- DOI
-
doi:10.3929/ethz-a-007319025
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Iselin, David
- Siliverstovs, Boriss
- ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Entstanden
- 2012
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