Arbeitspapier
The R-word index for Switzerland
In a pioneering attempt we present the R(ecession)-word index for Switzerland. We evaluate its predictive ability of GDP growth using real-time vintages of GDP data, closely simulating flow of information in the past. We find that inclusion of the R-word index led to statistically significant improvement in forecast accuracy over the benchmark autoregressive model. Largest improvements in forecast accuracy were observed in the period around the Great Recession.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: KOF Working Papers ; No. 304
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Subject
-
Recession
nowcasting
real-time data
Switzerland
Konjunktur
Sozialprodukt
Prognoseverfahren
Schweiz
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Iselin, David
Siliverstovs, Boriss
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
- (where)
-
Zurich
- (when)
-
2012
- DOI
-
doi:10.3929/ethz-a-007319025
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Iselin, David
- Siliverstovs, Boriss
- ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Time of origin
- 2012
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