Arbeitspapier
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24 th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals' fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.
- ISBN
-
978-3-95729-934-5
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; No. 03/2023
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Expectations; Speculations
Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- Thema
-
inflation expectations
Russian invasion of Ukraine
survey
natural experiment
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Afunts, Geghetsik
Cato, Misina
Schmidt, Tobias
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsche Bundesbank
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2023
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Afunts, Geghetsik
- Cato, Misina
- Schmidt, Tobias
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Entstanden
- 2023
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations
The pass-through from inflation perceptions to inflation expectations
Fatigue in payment diaries - empirical evidence from Germany
Households' expectations and regional COVID-19 dynamics
Bundesbank online pilot survey on consumer expectations
Household bargaining, pension contributions and retirement expectations: Evidence from the German Panel on Household Finances
International cooperation on innovation: empirical evidence for German and Portuguese firms
The pattern of home ownership across cohorts and its impact on the net wealth distribution: Empirical evidence from Germany and the US
Identifying income and wealth-poor households in the euro area
The influence of an up-front experiment on respondents' recording behaviour in payment diaries: Evidence from Germany
Precautionary motives in short-term cash management: Evidence from German POS transactions
Cross-country differences in homeownership: A cultural phenomenon?
The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations
The pass-through from inflation perceptions to inflation expectations
Fatigue in payment diaries - empirical evidence from Germany
Households' expectations and regional COVID-19 dynamics
Bundesbank online pilot survey on consumer expectations
Household bargaining, pension contributions and retirement expectations: Evidence from the German Panel on Household Finances
International cooperation on innovation: empirical evidence for German and Portuguese firms
The pattern of home ownership across cohorts and its impact on the net wealth distribution: Empirical evidence from Germany and the US
Identifying income and wealth-poor households in the euro area
The influence of an up-front experiment on respondents' recording behaviour in payment diaries: Evidence from Germany
Precautionary motives in short-term cash management: Evidence from German POS transactions
Cross-country differences in homeownership: A cultural phenomenon?
The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations
The pass-through from inflation perceptions to inflation expectations
Fatigue in payment diaries - empirical evidence from Germany
Households' expectations and regional COVID-19 dynamics
Bundesbank online pilot survey on consumer expectations
Household bargaining, pension contributions and retirement expectations: Evidence from the German Panel on Household Finances
International cooperation on innovation: empirical evidence for German and Portuguese firms
The pattern of home ownership across cohorts and its impact on the net wealth distribution: Empirical evidence from Germany and the US
Identifying income and wealth-poor households in the euro area
The influence of an up-front experiment on respondents' recording behaviour in payment diaries: Evidence from Germany
Precautionary motives in short-term cash management: Evidence from German POS transactions