The future of international migration: Developing expert-based assumptions for global population projections

Arbeitspapier

This paper explores alternative future trajectories of international migration by applying a multiregional flow model to a new set of estimates of global bilateral migration flows developed by the second author. The innovations in population projections presented here are threefold: first, the projections are based on new flow estimates that are comparable at the world level rather than commonly used net migration measures; second, a set of alternative expert-based what-if scenarios is developed and a continuation of current trends until the year 2060 as the medium variant is assumed rather than assuming a convergence to zero net migration; third projections are carried out using directional migration probabilities in a multiregional cohort-component framework, where populations of all countries are projected simultaneously. A discussion of the baseline data, assumptions and model specifications is followed by a summary of key result on projected numbers of future migrants.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers ; No. 7/2013

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie, Anthropologie
• Subject: international migration ; population projections ; multiregional demography ; flow estimates

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Sander, Nikola ; Abel, Guy J. ; Riosmena, Fernando
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
• (where): Vienna
• (when): 2013

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/97013
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET