The future of international migration: Developing expert-based assumptions for global population projections

Arbeitspapier

This paper explores alternative future trajectories of international migration by applying a multiregional flow model to a new set of estimates of global bilateral migration flows developed by the second author. The innovations in population projections presented here are threefold: first, the projections are based on new flow estimates that are comparable at the world level rather than commonly used net migration measures; second, a set of alternative expert-based what-if scenarios is developed and a continuation of current trends until the year 2060 as the medium variant is assumed rather than assuming a convergence to zero net migration; third projections are carried out using directional migration probabilities in a multiregional cohort-component framework, where populations of all countries are projected simultaneously. A discussion of the baseline data, assumptions and model specifications is followed by a summary of key result on projected numbers of future migrants.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers ; No. 7/2013

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie, Anthropologie
• Thema: international migration ; population projections ; multiregional demography ; flow estimates

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Sander, Nikola ; Abel, Guy J. ; Riosmena, Fernando
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
• (wo): Vienna
• (wann): 2013

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/97013
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ