Artikel

Forecasting CEMAC’s foreign exchange reserves in presence of unanticipated changes in oil prices: an interrupted time series modelling

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have decreased since the fall of world oil price that began in July 2014. In fact, five of the six of the CEMAC countries are oil producers. Based on interrupted time series modeling, the analysis shows that the unanticipated changes in oil prices immediately led to a decline in the level of their foreign exchange reserves. The trend is also decreasing. The model predicts a continued degradation of these reserves if oil prices remain low. In these conditions, the CEMAC could experience a currency crisis if economic policies implemented in this region do not lead to a return of economic growth.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Journal: Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice ; ISSN: 2336-9205 ; Volume: 8 ; Year: 2019 ; Issue: 2 ; Pages: 65-83 ; Warsaw: De Gruyter Open

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Thema
oil prices
CEMAC countries
foreign exchange reserves
interrupted time series analysis.

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Assoumou-Ella, Giscard
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
De Gruyter Open
(wo)
Warsaw
(wann)
2019

DOI
doi:10.2478/jcbtp-2019-0014
Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Artikel

Beteiligte

  • Assoumou-Ella, Giscard
  • De Gruyter Open

Entstanden

  • 2019

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