Arbeitspapier

Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications

This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It finds that 1) most recent housing booms have been very persistent and of a significant magnitude; 2) there appears to be a strong correlation between the persistence and magnitude of booms and subsequent busts; 3) economic costs (in terms of GDP losses during the post-boom phase) depend significantly on the magnitude and duration of the boom and money and credit developments during that period; 4) a number of policy variables, including short term interest rates, local and global money and credit developments, and the incidence of mortgage market deregulation affect significantly the probability of experiencing booms and busts; and 5) the model is quite successful in identifying booms and busts early on.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1071

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Housing Demand
Housing Supply and Markets
Thema
Booms and busts
House prices
housing market
Immobilienpreis
Immobilienmarkt
Konjunktur
Spekulationsblase
Probit-Modell
Panel
OECD-Staaten

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Agnello, Luca
Schuknecht, Ludger
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
European Central Bank (ECB)
(wo)
Frankfurt a. M.
(wann)
2009

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Agnello, Luca
  • Schuknecht, Ludger
  • European Central Bank (ECB)

Entstanden

  • 2009

Ähnliche Objekte (12)