Uma metodologia para decompor diferenças entre dados administrativos e pesquisas amostrais, com aplicação para o programa bolsa família e o benfício de prestação continuada na PNAD

Arbeitspapier

Estimates based on household surveys often differ considerably from administrative records. In the PNADs, for instance, the estimated number of beneficiaries of the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) and of the Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) are always lower than the official figures. This paper presents a simple methodology, based on the sampling design of household surveys, to explain these differences, decomposing them in three terms: the representativeness bias (due to selection of locales, census tracts or municipalities for the survey), the selection bias (due to selection issues in the chosen locales) and the interaction among them. The application of this methodology to the PBF and the BPC reveals that, regarding the former, the representativeness bias is accountable for a good part of the problem: the selection of the municipalities to be surveyed is responsible for 40% of the difference between official records and the PNAD. In the case of the BPC, the representativeness bias tends to act in the opposite direction. Thus, the selection bias is entirely responsible for the observed difference. Also, the erroneous reporting of the BPC as a Social Security benefit in the PNAD seems to occur mostly in the years prior to 2004 and in any case does not explain by itself the low number of beneficiaries identified in the PNAD.

Object Details

• Language: Portugiesisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Texto para Discussão ; No. 1517

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs ; Estimation: General

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Souza, Pedro H. G. Ferreira de
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
• (where): Brasília
• (when): 2011

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/91001
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET